The Marshmallow Effect

I was reading Paul Krugman's column, Cassandras of Climate, in the New York Times this morning and it made me think of kids and marshmallows. Perhaps I need to explain. The point of the column is that climate scientists have become Cassandras, meaning that they have the ability to predict upcoming disaster, in this case accelerating global warming, but they are equally cursed with the inability to get anyone to believe them. Krugman points out that our models show that the decline is happening much faster than earlier predicted, and we still are not, as a nation, paying attention. At least not enough to agree to do something about it.

Why is this, he wonders. I wonder too. If you'll allow me to dredge up an old gem from my college days, I'll offer up my 2 cents worth. I was a psychology minor, which as life has gone on has proven surprisingly handy. One study that stuck with me was called the marshmallow experiment, a way of measuring the ability to defer gratification. In the study, 4-year-olds are given a marshmallow and told that if they wait 20 minutes, they'll receive another one. Some children waited and some didn't. They found that those who waited grew up to be better adjusted and dependable, and scored over 200 points higher on the SAT. What this study told me, too, was that those who were able to foresee consequences probably came out ahead.

So here we are, at a time when there is near consensus on the existence and dangers of future climate change, when we are nearing or have passed peak oil, when our homes and cars in recent history have grown to enormous proportions, and we are tooling along, too busy or distracted to really bother. We haven't spent the time to think ahead and defer gratification so we can alter the future of this planet. We are the kids who can't wait 20 minutes for the next marshmallow. Wendell Berry considers the most urgent question of our time: How much is enough? We haven't been able to answer this question yet. So why do we continue to consume and ignore warnings from our most respected scientists? In my opinion, just like the impatient 4-year-olds, (and to paraphrase Bill Clinton): Because we can.

So, I ask you, is this our model of behavior? Is this truly the best we can do? I know there were some kids in this experiment who waited the 20 minutes. Let's hope at least some of them have seen this huge hurdle we have to overcome and can help keep us focused on the future.